I predicted long before the Iran war kicked off in March that 2026 would be the year the CCP pulls the trigger on its long-awaited incursion across the Taiwan Strait to reclaim what it views as its wayward island redoubt.
With China's political power struggle and continued purge inside military, traditional thinking would predict a 2027 or later schedule for China to throw down the dices. However, with the Middle East Wars, China has gained leverage: Taiwan had 3 weeks of oil reserve during the late 1970s to 1980s, and about 2 weeks after 2000. If the oil blockade lasts just a bit longer, Taiwan's civilians would collapse even before its military does anything. Taiwan's main weakness has never been its military. If China wants to get something back from Iran for its effort to supply Iran, then not letting tankers go to Taiwan to pass is a good favor to ask. Even if Taiwan can get some relief from Japan, SK, and the US, it won't be enough for military operations even if Chinese Navy let all tankers reach Taiwan. Japan and SK are better prepared, but I think they have at most 4 weeks of reserve.
"Does the global oil squeeze help or hurt China’s military capacity, given that almost all of its oil supplies come through the Strait of Hormuz?"
In a big way. Which is the primary reason behind the move on Iran, and Xi knows that.
But Xi is also finding out that Putin now controls all of the major chess pieces on the geopolitical chessboard. The most important piece relating to the Iran adventure being Turkey.
So, that sets up a very uncomfortable dynamic for China. The Chinese economy right now is not good and the people are getting restless. They rightfully feel like they got screwed by the CCP in the residential real-estate market. Which is completely in the tank.
IMO, it's more likely that Xi will continue to bluff on a move towards Taiwan.
a lack of helium is going to shutter tmsc long before china retakes taiwan.
trump did that.
he also just provided china and russia with a comprehensive view of the best ways to neuter the u.s. military.
anyone think he can manage this without netanyahu (the six fingered man) by his side?
With China's political power struggle and continued purge inside military, traditional thinking would predict a 2027 or later schedule for China to throw down the dices. However, with the Middle East Wars, China has gained leverage: Taiwan had 3 weeks of oil reserve during the late 1970s to 1980s, and about 2 weeks after 2000. If the oil blockade lasts just a bit longer, Taiwan's civilians would collapse even before its military does anything. Taiwan's main weakness has never been its military. If China wants to get something back from Iran for its effort to supply Iran, then not letting tankers go to Taiwan to pass is a good favor to ask. Even if Taiwan can get some relief from Japan, SK, and the US, it won't be enough for military operations even if Chinese Navy let all tankers reach Taiwan. Japan and SK are better prepared, but I think they have at most 4 weeks of reserve.
"Does the global oil squeeze help or hurt China’s military capacity, given that almost all of its oil supplies come through the Strait of Hormuz?"
In a big way. Which is the primary reason behind the move on Iran, and Xi knows that.
But Xi is also finding out that Putin now controls all of the major chess pieces on the geopolitical chessboard. The most important piece relating to the Iran adventure being Turkey.
So, that sets up a very uncomfortable dynamic for China. The Chinese economy right now is not good and the people are getting restless. They rightfully feel like they got screwed by the CCP in the residential real-estate market. Which is completely in the tank.
IMO, it's more likely that Xi will continue to bluff on a move towards Taiwan.
Taiwan is China, Hawaii is not the US and neither is Alsaka, and neither are the Marshall islands and neither is Puerto Rico etc etc etc.
The sooner the US is put back in its box and ALL of these terrorists put on trial the safer the world shall be.